November 1, 2009

Disconfirming information

"The basic lesson of Bayesian analysis is that you can learn only from information that disconfirms some part of your current belief set.  But of course the natural tendency of the mind is to minimize cognitive dissonance by accepting confirming evidence and rejecting disconfirming evidence, and that tendency is emphasized when beliefs get to be badges of group membership."

~ Mark Kleiman


  1. This reminds me of something that I heard in an audio program. It was an advice for success and it sounded like this: "look where everyone is going and go the opposite direction, your chances are better." :)

    Doing the right thing is a lot of the time hard and painful but that doesn't make it less right.

  2. What you say reminds me ook a book by Robert Sternberg (Defying the crowd)


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